Scoring

How it's calculated

Every player has an xPts number — our estimate of FIFA Fantasy points for the next match. Here's how we get there.

The short version

xPtsis the model's estimate of FIFA Fantasy points for a player's next match. It comes from four inputs multiplied together and scored with the official points table.

  1. Form — goals, assists, clean sheets, and minutes from recent matches (qualifiers, club season, friendlies).
  2. Fixture difficulty— FDR 1–5 swings attacking output and clean-sheet odds by roughly ±45%.
  3. Squad strength — an Elo prior haircuts form built against weak opposition (and rewards form against strong).
  4. Market odds — when Polymarket has the fixture, we blend 70% market / 30% form for team goals and clean sheets.

Those feed the FIFA points table: appearance, goals, assists, clean sheet, yellow card. The result is rounded to the tenth.