Scoring
How it's calculated
Every player has an xPts number — our estimate of FIFA Fantasy points for the next match. Here's how we get there.
The short version
xPtsis the model's estimate of FIFA Fantasy points for a player's next match. It comes from four inputs multiplied together and scored with the official points table.
- Form — goals, assists, clean sheets, and minutes from recent matches (qualifiers, club season, friendlies).
- Fixture difficulty— FDR 1–5 swings attacking output and clean-sheet odds by roughly ±45%.
- Squad strength — an Elo prior haircuts form built against weak opposition (and rewards form against strong).
- Market odds — when Polymarket has the fixture, we blend 70% market / 30% form for team goals and clean sheets.
Those feed the FIFA points table: appearance, goals, assists, clean sheet, yellow card. The result is rounded to the tenth.